🍞 The Chicken Problem

Hello,

This is Demilade, writing this, dreaming of chickwizz meal. In the early two thousands, I remember my dad taking me to the pizza place called St. Elmo’s. I had never seen anything like it. I was used to fast food places already; I swore by Mr Biggs meat pie and Scotch egg, and I was promised a weekly treat at Tantalizers on Allen Avenue. But this one felt different It felt foreign. Fast forward 25 years and that company has transformed into one of the most iconic QSRs in Nigeria. And their journey there wasn’t easy.

Mr Biggs had an 18-year head start and nearly twice as many restaurants. Chicken Republic had a borrowed recipe, 35% debt and a country where chicken costs double.

Today’s deep dive is the story of how the smaller chain ended up winning the Nigerian fast food race.

Enjoy!
Demilade

In 2015, Mr Biggs had about 115 restaurants across Nigeria. It was where families went after Sunday service and where children begged to have their birthday parties. Chicken Republic had 60. Today, Mr Biggs has 13. Food Concepts, the company behind Chicken Republic, runs around 270 stores across 25 states and made ₦95.3 billion ($64 million) in revenue in 2024. That is roughly 20 times as many stores as the chain it was chasing had a decade ago.

Chicken Republic was a relatively late entrant into Nigeria's fast-food space. Mr Biggs was selling jollof and meat pies in the 1980s. Tantalizers and Tastee Fried Chicken were frying chicken from 1997. What Chicken Republic did was make fast food consistent, affordable and available almost everywhere. Each step came from a bet on something specific, and most of those bets were shaped by the price of one ingredient. 🐓🐓🐓

Food concepts & Entertainment Limited was incorporated on 6 December 1999, seven months after Nigeria returned to civilian rule. Its founder, Deji Akinyanju, had spent the late 1990s running a trading business in South Africa. The country had just come out of sanctions, and its food and retail chains were already operating at a scale Nigeria had not seen. He came home convinced the same thing could work here.

Food Concepts secured franchises for South African fast-food brands like Butterfield Bakery, Reeds Thai Restaurant and St. Elmo's Pizza. Its first chicken shop opened in Lagos in 2001, trading as Chicken Lickin' through a franchise relationship with South Africa's Chicken Licken. By 2004, armed with $2 million in seed capital, the company felt ready to go alone. Chicken Republic opened in Apapa, wholly Nigerian-owned.

The new brand leaned into its name. A republic has citizens, so customers became Citizens and the signature meal became the Citizens Meal. The chicken was "Soulfully Spiced" with West African herbs and spices, and it came with jollof rice, fried rice or rice and beans, serving the context it was created for. The template was South African, but the plate was now Nigerian.

The early growth was fast and badly financed. Chicken Republic opened six more outlets within three years of its first, funded by bank loans at around 35% interest on three-year terms – i.e. if you borrow ₦ 1 million today, you’d have to pay back ₦2.5 million at the end of the loan. A new restaurant, like any new business, takes time to find its regulars. A three-year loan at 35% wants its money back before these regulars arrive. By its second year, the business was, in its founder's own later description, technically bankrupt. No matter how amazing your business idea is, financing on those terms is nearly impossible to survive… without an extra capital injection. And by its second year, the business was, in its founder's own later description, technically bankrupt.

The rescue came in 2005, when a larger bank took over the loans and refinanced them. Then, in 2007, shortly before the global financial crisis froze markets, the company raised $20 million through a private placement, selling shares directly to a small group of investors. Akinyanju has explained the logic with a simple comparison: a Western manufacturer might borrow at around 2%, while he was paying over 30%. In Nigeria, selling part of your company was often cheaper than borrowing against it.

It needed the money, because Nigeria had very little ready-made commercial property. Most outlets were built from scratch at roughly $600,000 each. Commercial landlords often wanted rent upfront, sometimes for a full decade. A business that builds its own buildings, prepays its rent and funds its own supply chain in a 30 per cent economy will eventually belong to whoever has patient money. We will come back to who that turned out to be.

By 2010, the Republic had 70 outlets, mostly in Lagos, and had annexed its first foreign territory: Ghana.

Scale exposed the cracks. Chicken supply was unreliable, staff training was uneven, and a meal in one outlet did not always match a meal in the next. As a result, profits suffered. The company needed yet another financial intervention.  

This time, it came in the form of a $20 million investment ($7 million equity and $13 million debt) from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank's private-sector arm. The money went into two unglamorous things: a central kitchen and a training academy. Food Concepts also opened its own poultry operation, an attempt to control the costs of its most expensive input. 

The central kitchen meant the company could solve its scaling issues. Spice blends, sauces and core preparations are made in one place and shipped to every store. A manager in Abuja cannot quietly rewrite the recipe used in Lagos. Consistency stops depending on the mood of each cook.

This is where the paths of Chicken Republic and its competitors like Mr Biggs split. UAC began franchising Mr Biggs heavily in 2002, and as more independent operators took on outlets, holding quality steady became harder. Chicken Republic went the other way. In 2015, it still owned 80% of its restaurants outright.

Around this same time, the company started divesting from its other brands. Remember that earlier on in 2003, Food Concepts opened Butterfield, which grew into one of Nigeria’s largest bakery chains, alongside its Yum Yum sausage rolls. In 2015, South Africa's Pioneer Foods paid $7 million for 50.01% of the bakery business. In 2020, PepsiCo completed its purchase of Pioneer, and Butterfield came along with it. Food Concepts no longer lists the bakery among its brands, and the terms of its exit have not been disclosed.

By 2015, Chicken Republic had 60 restaurants, four of them in Ghana. Revenue was about ₦3.4 billion ($22 million) but the company had made a loss in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

A new chief executive, David Butler, had arrived in late 2014 after senior roles at KFC and Nando's. Akinyanju became executive chairman, holding about 20% of Food Concepts. Together, they set out the next chapter:

The plan was built for a specific citizen: aged 18 to 22 year old, either still supported by family or not yet supporting one. They wanted air conditioning, clean interiors and music. A Citizens Crunchy Mix, with a piece of chicken, two wings, rice or chips and a drink, cost ₦1,300, about $6.50. For most Nigerians, that was not lunch. It was an occasion.

The biggest risk to the business in 2015 was not attracting this youthful aspirational customer to the company. It was sitting in the fryer.

Feed, mostly maize, accounts for 65 to 80% of the cost of raising a broiler (a chicken bred for meat). Nigerian maize sold at roughly twice the world price, thanks to low yields, poor access to fertiliser and improved seed, and mould-contaminated feed that killed birds at several times the rate seen in Brazil or the US. Add it together and Nigerian chicken cost about double what it did in Brazil, South Africa or the US at the farm gate.

The chain was selling 300,000 pieces of chicken a week. Around 40% came from a single supplier, the poultry group Amo Byng, and another 30% from its own farm. That concentration was necessity, not choice. Very few Nigerian producers could deliver safe, consistent birds at that volume.

Nigeria has banned poultry imports since 2003. The ban did not stop foreign chicken arriving: smuggled frozen birds were sold openly in markets at about half the price of local ones. But a chain with a brand, lenders and a food-safety reputation to protect could not touch them.

For Chicken Republic, owning part of the chain from farm to counter was never a grand strategy. It was the only way to keep chicken on the menu at a price its citizens could pay.

In 2016, Nigeria slid into its first recession in roughly 25 years. The young professional treating themselves to a ₦1,300 meal started doing it less often. Chicken Republic's answer defined its next decade. It launched the Refuel Meal at ₦500: one piece of chicken with rice or spaghetti, priced for a Tuesday rather than a Saturday.

It is the same shopper we met in our Bokku Mart deep dive: someone who still wants the brand, just at a price that survives month-end.

Over the next few years, it came to read less like a fast-food board and more like a Nigerian kitchen: moin moin, dodo, spicy yam, rice and beans, and even Ghana jollof, a brave choice in a country that considers the jollof war settled. Then came the Pot Meals, built for families, and coworkers. When chicken prices spiked in 2021, the brand did what millions of Nigerian households were doing and swapped chicken for eggs in one of its meals. The EggStar Meal followed in 2022. A chicken restaurant selling an egg meal. That is what the economy was doing to menus.

Its cleverest move came in 2019. It launched PieXpress as pastry counters inside existing Chicken Republic stores. It sold meat pies and snacks to commuters without paying for new land, new buildings or new diesel. In a business where property had always been a bottleneck to revenue growth, PieXpress was a way to grow without the additional cost.

In late 2021 came The Chop Box, a Lagos brand built around Nigerian dishes such as jollof and egusi soup. The company says its research showed strong demand for authentic Nigerian food. The Chicken Republic of 2015 was built for customers who wanted something cleaner and cooler than the buka around the corner. Six years later, its owner was building a brand to serve buka food. The Chop Box is still small, a handful of outlets, but it shows where the company thinks Nigerian appetite is heading.

By 2021, Food Concepts was calling itself a mass-market business built on affordable value. The aspirational brand of 2015 had become an everyday one.

If this story sounds familiar, it is because it has happened before, on the other side of the world.

In 1975, a young Filipino entrepreneur, Tony Tan Caktiong, bought a franchise to run Magnolia ice cream parlours in Manila. Customers kept asking for hot food. In 1978, the family cancelled the franchise and turned the parlours into their own fast-food brand: Jollibee.

Three years later, McDonald's arrived. On almost every measure (systems, marketing, money) it was the stronger company. Jollibee won on one thing: taste. Sweeter burgers, saltier fried chicken and spaghetti done the Filipino way. Its fried chicken, Chickenjoy, now makes up about 30 per cent of all its orders.

Today, according to its executives, Jollibee controls about half of the Philippines' chicken-and-burger market, against 29 per cent for McDonald's. The group had grown to 10,304 stores worldwide by September 2025, much of that by buying other brands, from Greenwich Pizza in 1994 to the American chain Smashburger in 2018.

The parallels are hard to miss. Start as a franchisee. Learn the system. Break away and build your own brand. Beat the global chain on local taste. Then add brands to sell more food through the same machinery. PieXpress and The Chop Box are small steps down the road Jollibee took.

There is one big difference. About two-thirds of Jollibee-branded stores in the Philippines are franchised, which means other people fund much of its growth. Chicken Republic said it would do the same in 2015. It has not. Which brings us back to the plan.

Here is how the 2015 plan scored.

The company opened 22 new stores in 2025, and it is still expanding. Just last month, in August 2026, it opened its first outlets in Jos, Plateau State, with the Smokey Jollof and the Chickwhizz sandwich leading the menu.

Its owners have changed too. Development Partners International (DPI), a pan-African private equity firm, held 82.5% of Food Concepts by the end of 2020. In 2021, it sold 31% to African Capital Alliance, a Nigerian investment firm, while keeping a majority.

In 2024, Food Concepts made ₦95.3 billion in revenue, up 44%, and ₦3.3 billion in profit after tax. But separate the price from the plate. Most of that growth came from higher prices. The number of meals sold actually fell as customers lost purchasing power. This flipped in 2025.  Revenue rose 13%to ₦107.5 billion and profit after tax more than doubled to ₦7.2 billion. EBITDA climbed 45% to ₦17 billion, about 16 kobo in every naira of sales. More importantly, the company says the number of transactions was growing again by the second quarter. It paid for that with promotions, and paid for the promotions with savings from its suppliers. 

Chicken Republic is a story of how difficult it is to scale a business when there is high inflation and currency devaluation. The Refuel Meal still tells the story best. It launched at ₦500 in 2016.10 years later, it charges ₦2,200, more than four times the launch price, and it is still the brand's everyday value meal. 

In Nigeria, the business made a net margin of 6.6% in 2025, up from 3.4%. Ghana went the other way. Revenue grew to ₦716 million, still less than 1% of the group, but its margin fell from 20.2% to 11.7%, and a Ghanaian store was closed during the year.

The company is benefiting from patient capital, and the owners are being paid. The dividend jumped from 5x to 19 kobo a share, about ₦5.5 billion, or roughly three-quarters of the year's profit. DPI's vehicle holds 51.86% of the company, and a second institutional holder, Lugacy 1, holds 29.37%. The patient money that fueled the company's expansion now wants to get paid, and in 2025 it started collecting.

Watch: Food Concepts' 2026 results for whether transaction growth holds without heavy promotions, the pace of new store openings, and the opening of new central kitchens in Abuja and Port Harcourt, which the company expects by the second quarter of 2026. The Republic was built on chicken. Its future depends on whether its citizens can still afford it.

Source: Company figures for 2013 to 2015, store economics and the 2015 expansion plan are drawn from "Chicken Republic" (HBS No. 9-516-052), a Harvard Business School case study by Jose Alvarez and Natalie Kindred.

🏦 GTCO's profit holds at N603 billion, pays N1 interim dividend Guaranty Trust Holding Company made a pre-tax profit of₦603.03 billion in H1 2026, almost unchanged from N600.90 billion a year earlier. After-tax profit fell 7.76% to ₦414.19 billion because tax rose 24.33% to ₦188.85 billion. Interest income grew 7.51% to ₦873.39 billion, but interest expense grew faster, rising 24.24%. Deposits rose 11.32% to ₦13.97 trillion, but loans barely moved (up 0.48% to ₦3.15 trillion). Most of the new money went into investment securities, which rose 21.78% to N6.73 trillion. The shares are up 51.05% this year at ₦137. GTBank is basically a hedge fund that uses our money for securities, without sharing the profits with us 😭

Watch: how falling T-bill yields affect returns on a securities book now more than twice the size of GTCO's loan book.

📉 T-bill yields fall to a 2026 low after record rate cut The CBN cut its benchmark rate by 350 basis points to 23% from 26.5%, the largest single cut on record. Governor Olayemi Cardoso called it a "recalibration" to bring the policy rate in line with market rates, which were already below 20%.
At the 23 September Treasury bill auction, rates fell across all tenors:

The 364-day rate has now fallen 146 basis points over four auctions from its July peak of 17.70%. Demand stayed strong: investors bid N4.23 trillion for N600 billion on offer, and N497.59 billion was allotted. With August inflation at 15.39%, T-bill returns after inflation are now close to zero.

Watch: September's inflation figure and the next MPC meeting on 24 November.

💧 Banks face an N8.57 trillion cash wave The banking system entered this week with about ₦8.57 trillion in liquidity. Net liquidity closed last week at ₦5.98 trillion, up from N2.86 trillion the week before. Another ₦2.59 trillion is due this week from maturing OMO bills (₦2.43 trillion) and bond coupons (₦164 billion).

Banks parked about ₦7 trillion at the CBN's deposit facility last week, and the overnight rate fell 147 basis points to 20.77%. At the latest OMO auction, the CBN offered ₦1 trillion, received ₦6.1 trillion in bids and sold ₦2.3 trillion. Rates cleared at 16.99% to 17.29%, above what Treasury bills now pay. Q3 auction sales reached N8.14 trillion, 40.34% above the ₦5.8 trillion target.

Watch: more OMO sales as the CBN tries to soak up the excess cash.

🌾 Nigeria's agriculture trade flips to deficit. Nigeria's agricultural trade went from an N740.27 billion surplus in H1 2025 to an N56.13 billion deficit in H1 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Exports fell 33.3% to N1.98 trillion, while imports fell only 8.5% to N2.03 trillion.

The change happened in Q2. Q1 still had an N344.65 billion surplus, but Q2 ended with an N400.78 billion deficit: exports of N802.99 billion against imports of N1.20 trillion. Cocoa beans led Q2 exports at N154.31 billion, followed by sesame seeds at N96.03 billion. The sector employs 25.34 million Nigerians, about 30.1% of the workforce.

Watch: Q3 trade data, which will show whether Q2 was a one-off or the start of a longer slide.

🇧🇫 Burkina Faso orders NGOs to spend 80% of budgets in the field
Burkina Faso's cabinet, chaired by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, adopted a rule on 24 September requiring NGOs to spend at least 80% of their budgets on direct field operations. Administrative costs are capped at 20%, and existing organisations have two years to comply. The rule follows a July directive that sent 60% of humanitarian funding to local economic development. In April, the government dissolved 118 civil society organisations in a single decree. About 2.7 million people in the country need aid. Aid groups warn that cutting monitoring staff could hurt aid delivery in insecure areas. Meanwhile, Russia's presence keeps growing: French forces were expelled in 2023, Africa Corps paramilitaries are now in the country, and the Moscow-backed African Initiative is building local networks across the Sahel. Watch: whether major Western NGOs scale back operations.

🇪🇬 Genel outbids DNO for Egypt-focused Capricorn
Genel Energy has raised its offer for London-listed Capricorn Energy to $436 million. That works out at $5.74 a share: $4.75 in cash plus a $0.99 special dividend. The new offer is 10% above the $396 million that Norwegian rival DNO bid earlier this month. Capricorn's board now backs Genel, citing "superior value, certainty and deliverability". Shareholders holding about 39.1% of the company have signed on, including Palliser Capital and Newtyn Management. What both bidders want is Capricorn's onshore production in Egypt's Western Desert. The offer is 63% above Capricorn's share price in March, before the bidding war began. Egypt's Competition Authority cleared the deal on 7 September, but final Egyptian regulatory approval is still needed. Genel expects to close in Q4 2026, paying with cash and new debt. Watch: whether DNO comes back with a third bid.

🇰🇪 President Ruto backs Dangote's $17 billion Kenya refinery
Kenya's President William Ruto called Dangote's Lagos refinery "a masterpiece of science, engineering and art". He also said his government is "100 per cent behind" the group's proposed $17 billion, 700,000 barrels-per-day East African Oil Refinery in Lamu. The backing comes as the group grows fast. Revenue was $18 billion in 2025 and about $17 billion in the first half of 2026 alone. Chief strategy officer Aliyu Suleiman says the group is "on track to get to $36 billion this year". Dangote plans to invest $100 billion over the next five years. That includes a new 750,000 barrels-per-day unit in Lagos that would take refining capacity to about 1.4 million barrels a day. The group has also signed a consultancy contract worth more than $450 million with Engineers India Limited. Watch: the Lamu groundbreaking and how the $17 billion will be financed.

🇪🇹🇩🇯 Dangote and Ethiopia to lay $660 million fuel lifeline
Dangote and Ethiopian Investment Holdings will build a $660 million, 120km refined-fuel pipeline. It will run from Djibouti's Damerjog port to a distribution facility at Dewele in Ethiopia, with storage at both ends. Operations are expected within 18 months. Ethiopia is landlocked and depends heavily on Djibouti's port for its fuel imports. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says the pipeline will "reduce logistics costs and delays" and improve energy security. It adds to Dangote's growing presence in Ethiopia, which already includes a $4 billion fertiliser project and a polypropylene packaging plant. Watch: whether the 18-month timeline holds, and whether financing terms are disclosed.