🍞 The CBN holds the line

Cześć 👋🏽

That’s hello in Polish!! I spent last week in Warsaw, and my impressions of the city and country are even better than before. Everywhere you looked, there was a reference to the World Wars and the decimation of the people and the city. Monuments, rebuilt cities, museums, and even murals, depicting its pain. However, in the midst of this, a new Poland is rising, one that is filled with supercars, Michelin restaurants and even a world-class Museum of Modern Art. All of these point to a thriving economy and, as a result, a thriving people. I wonder if the acknowledgement of this shared grief fostered an identity that Polish people have pulled inspiration from to transform their country. P.s Reply this for recommendations ;)


In this edition, the implication of CBN holding MPR and yet another Dangote story.

Why nothing changed

The CBN held MPR at 26.5% in its most recent monetary policy meeting. This is the second consecutive hold, and the framing has shifted from crisis to confidence. The argument coming from the CBN and outside economists is the same: Nigeria's remaining inflation problem is structural and externally driven, not the kind of demand-side inflation another rate hike could fix.

Dr. Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise put it directly: monetary policy is a powerful stabilisation tool, but it cannot repair supply chains, resolve geopolitical conflicts, or eliminate production bottlenecks. With the Iran conflict still pushing global energy prices around, that distinction matters.

A quick refresher: MPR vs inflation

The Monetary Policy Rate is the CBN's main lever for managing inflation. The mechanism is straightforward: when prices are rising too fast, the CBN raises the MPR, which makes borrowing more expensive across the economy. Loans cost more, businesses invest less, consumers spend less, demand cools, and prices eventually follow. When inflation is under control, the CBN cuts the MPR to stimulate borrowing, spending, and growth. The catch, and it is the one Muda Yusuf flagged above, is that this only works when inflation is being driven by too much demand. When prices are rising because of supply shocks (e.g., fuel scarcity, FX crises, Iran cutting off the Strait of Hormuz), raising rates does not fix the actual problem. It just makes credit more expensive while the underlying cause keeps doing its damage.

So what does this mean for fixed-income?

Treasury bills are still paying above 16%. The May 20 primary auction saw N1.99 trillion in bids chasing a N650 billion offer, with the 364-day bill alone attracting N1.84 trillion. That is more than three times oversubscribed😅.

For existing bondholders, the rate hold is good news. A further hike would have pushed bond prices down (when rates go up, the value of existing bonds falls), so leaving rates steady protects portfolio values. For new investors, the naira carry trade still pays well, i.e., borrow from a country with low rates and buy Nigerian bonds. But the global picture is less generous. With US Treasury yields hits highest level since 2070, foreign investors can now earn solid returns in dollars without taking on naira currency risk, which narrows the appeal of Nigerian bonds for offshore money.

But how about Equities?

The NGX is up over 60% year-to-date. The rate hold supports the rally in two ways: it removes the risk of further capital-cost pressure on listed companies, and it keeps the high-net-interest-margin environment that makes banking stocks attractive, with MPR at 26.5% and Treasury bill yields above 16%. First HoldCo's Q1 ROE of 31.6% from last week is a direct beneficiary of this setup.

Consumer goods stocks are the soft spot. Food inflation rose again in April, with yam up 3.98%, watermelon up 1.63% and beans up +0.79% month-on-month. Companies selling to households still face margin compression from input costs they cannot fully pass through.

Your Portfolio angle: The CBN's quiet pause is the right call for this moment. The economy has stopped breaking, FX has stabilised, and the S&P upgrade has restored some credibility. What is missing is real wage growth and supply-side reform. Until that arrives, fixed-income carry stays attractive, bank stocks stay favoured, and consumer-facing equities stay tricky.

☎️ Nigeria finally rewrites its 26-year-old telecoms policy

The NCC has begun a formal review of Nigeria's National Telecommunications Policy, the framework that has been in place since 2000, with the proposed 2026 version expected to be finalised before year-end. The 15 major changes target tariff transparency, harmonised right-of-way fees, simplified one-stop permitting, and accelerated 5G and satellite broadband rollout to move millions of rural users off legacy 2G and 3G networks. The urgency is in the data. Nigeria recorded 19,384 fibre-optic cable cuts in 2025 and another 5,934 in Q1 2026 alone, while operators contend with more than 50 taxes and levies, persistent right-of-way bottlenecks, and rising energy costs, with diesel prices climbing from N1,770 to N1,850 per litre in recent months. NCC chief Aminu Maida put it bluntly: "A policy that was fit for purpose in the year 2000 cannot simply be assumed to remain adequate in 2026." The January 2026 tariff hike, which sent MTN's 15GB weekly bundle from N2,000 to N6,000, was a symptom. The policy review is finally treating the disease.

🏗 NNPC fires back at Dangote

NNPC has hit back at Dangote Refinery in the Federal High Court, accusing the refinery of attempting to monopolise Nigeria's fuel market through its May 15 lawsuit. In documents filed in response to the suit, the state oil company argued that granting Dangote's request to void or restrict the import licences would undermine competition, threaten supply security, and destabilise the fuel market. Crucially, NNPC also argued that Dangote has not provided "credible, independent or verifiable evidence" that it can consistently meet Nigeria's total fuel demand and guarantee uninterrupted nationwide supply. The NMDPRA has separately applied to join the case. The timing matters. Dangote's IPO is planned for September, and the court hearings will land right in the middle of investor roadshows. A refinery being publicly accused of monopolistic intent by the country's state oil company is a meaningful disclosure item, even for a deal valued at $50 billion.

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