🍞 Small steps forward

Hello! It's the last week of Q1. Quick check-in: How are your New Year's resolutions coming along?

Nigeria's goals are going...okay.

The economy is "recovering"; at least, that's what the numbers say. But when nearly 6 in 10 Nigerians earn little to nothing each month, who exactly is feeling it?

In this issue, we dive into a report that puts numbers to the disconnect, a $190 million AI defence deal that signals Nigeria's shifting alliances, and why Big Oil just got its forex handcuffs removed.

Let's get into it.

A new PiggyVest report surveyed 26,000+ Nigerians, and the headline number shows that only 6% feel financially secure.

The breakdown

Nearly 3 in 10 Nigerians earn under ₦100,000 a month. Add in the 28% who report zero income (a number that's stayed stubbornly high since 2024) and you've got almost 6 in 10 Nigerians earning little to nothing. On the other side, the share of Nigerians pulling in ₦1M+ monthly bounced back to 5% in 2025 after crashing to 2% in 2024. Small green shoot, but a green shoot.

The gender gap is real

Women are overrepresented at the bottom: 60% of female respondents earn under ₦100,000 or have no income at all, vs. 56% of men. At the top: Men are more than twice as likely as women to earn ₦1M+ monthly. And at ₦5M+, that gap stretches to 2.14x. The report links this to labour market access, household dynamics, and unequal entry into formal employment.

The savings struggle

Half of Nigerians don't save at all. Only 4 in 10 have an emergency fund. More than half start each month not knowing if their income will cover basics. And 3 in 5 income earners are supporting relatives outside their immediate household, leaving even less room to breathe financially.

The macro vs. micro disconnect

Nigeria is on a reform parade right now — the government says inflation is cooling and the hard decisions are paying off. The data says households haven't felt it yet. PiggyVest co-founder Odunayo Eweniyi put it plainly: "We cannot out-innovate social issues." Her point is fintech can build great tools, but structural fixes (think: credit systems, identity infrastructure, social safety nets) are still a government job.

The Lagos angle

The Lagos State Employment Trust Fund flagged a useful resource: loans of up to ₦5M at 9% per annum for qualifying residents, with over ₦23 billion disbursed in loans and ₦2 billion in grants since the fund launched.

Bottom line

Nigeria's macro numbers are improving on paper. But for most households, financial security still feels like a distant goal, not a present reality.

⚡NNPC's EVP for Gas, Power & New Energy Olalekan Ogunleye laid out an ambitious Gas Master Plan: grow Nigeria's validated gas reserves from 210 trillion cubic feet (tcf) to 600 tcf, boost daily production from 7.4 billion to 12 billion standard cubic feet by 2030, and pull in $60 billion in fresh investment through partnerships and commercial incentives. With Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes under pressure from Middle East tensions, global buyers are actively looking for alternative LNG suppliers, and NNPC is raising its hand. Nigeria has the gas, the geography, and now the plan. According to Ogunleye, "This plan is neither aspirational nor theoretical": a clear signal that NNPC knows the world is watching and intends to deliver.

🛡️ Nigeria’s AI-Powered defence system: Nigeria has signed a $190 million deal with UK-based defence tech firm MARSS to deploy its first fully integrated national defence system, one of the largest defence programmes ever commissioned on the continent. The timing and the company chosen are also worth noting. Nigeria is actively diversifying its defence partnerships beyond the US (sourcing equipment from Turkey, Europe, etc), partly in response to friction with Washington over religious freedom concerns under the Trump administration. The UK's Defence Minister Lord Coaker called the deal an extension of a "deep, longstanding security relationship" between both countries. For Nigeria, it's a signal that the country is serious about modernising its counter-terrorism capabilities and protecting critical infrastructure, on its own terms.

🔧 Nigeria’s piping straight to Europe: Nigeria is pushing ahead with one of its most ambitious energy infrastructure plays yet: a $20 billion pipeline that would carry 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Nigeria to Europe, running through Chad, Libya, and under the Mediterranean to Sicily. The project, dubbed the Renewed Hope Gas Pipeline, is being developed by the Netoil consortium and got a fresh push last week when Nigeria's Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, led a delegation to London. Netoil CEO Roger Tamraz says buyers are already lined up for 20-year contracts, and the financing is in place. The main thing left? Securing rights-of-way across some of the world's most complex terrain.

What changed?

Since 2024, IOCs operating in Nigeria have been working under a frustrating arrangement: repatriate 50% of your export proceeds now, and wait 90 days for the other half. On top of that, any cash pooling, where companies consolidate funds across accounts, requires CBN approval and detailed paperwork.

That's all gone now. A new CBN circular signed by Trade and Exchange Department Director Dr Musa Nakorji, dated March 25, 2026, grants IOCs unfettered access to 100% of their repatriated export proceeds, effective immediately. Authorised dealer banks have been told to comply right away and file monthly reports to the CBN.

Why does this matter?

Nigeria is still trying to stabilise its FX market after years of volatility, a naira freefall, and investor scepticism. Giving oil companies, some of the biggest dollar earners in the country, full control of their forex removes a major friction point. The CBN framed it as a move to "deepen liquidity and stabilise the Nigerian foreign exchange market," and in plain terms, more dollars flowing freely through authorised channels is good for the market.

It also sends a signal. At a time when Nigeria is actively courting foreign investment, easing restrictions on how multinationals access their own money is the kind of policy shift that gets noticed in boardrooms abroad.

The bottom line

The CBN is loosening the reins on oil company forex, which is a pragmatic move that could improve liquidity, ease operational friction for IOCs, and nudge foreign investor confidence in the right direction. Whether it translates to real stability on the ground is the next question to watch.