🍞 Power reset

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After a decade of “we’ll sort it out,” the federal government is putting real money behind its promises. President Bola Tinubu has approved a N3.3 trillion plan to settle long-standing debts owed across the power sector, accumulated between 2015 and 2025.

Power generation companies, gas suppliers, and other players haven’t been fully paid in years, which, unsurprisingly, makes it hard to keep the lights on consistently. In the most recent saga, gas companies refused to release gas needed to power the country to electricity distribution companies until their debts were paid, so the country was running on less than 30% of its electricity needs in February and March.

So far, 15 generation companies have signed settlement deals worth ₦2.3 trillion. The government has scraped together ₦501 billion, and about ₦223 billion of the debt has been paid. More is coming.

Why this matters:

The government is framing it as a confidence play. By clearing these debts, the hope is to unlock liquidity across the sector, ensure gas suppliers get paid, and keep power plants running without constant financial strain. In theory, this should translate into a more stable grid.

It also ties into broader reforms already underway, such as improved metering. If all goes well, the ripple effect is economic growth. Nigeria reportedly loses about $26 billion every year to power shortages, with businesses spending another $22 billion on generators just to function. If the average business has stable electricity, Nigeria might be able to confidently reclaim that “Giant of Africa” title.

Africa’s off-grid future

While the government tries to fix the grid, the African Development Bank is betting on renewable energy.

The AfDB just approved an $11.3 million renewable energy facility designed to fund mini-grids across Nigeria and 13 other African countries. The goal is to bring electricity to about 856,000 people, mostly in underserved and high-risk areas.

Renewable energy certificates from these mini-grid projects will be sold to multinational companies looking to boost their ESG credentials. That money then flows back as upfront capital to developers building the projects. So, companies trying to look good on climate goals end up helping fund electricity access in places the grid doesn’t reach.

The big picture

Even if the grid improves, it’s nowhere near meeting demand. Peak demand is still multiple times higher than what the system can generate. So it’s great that Nigeria is pursuing both grid and off-grid. Whether that finally translates into “no light” becoming less of a national personality trait is the real test.

💸Afreximbank to the rescue: As the US-Israel vs Iran conflict messes with oil flows and choke up key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, African countries — many of which rely heavily on imported fuel, food, and fertiliser — are feeling the squeeze. Afreximbank is offering a financial buffer to provide foreign exchange, trade financing, and liquidity so countries can keep importing essentials without their economies spiralling. Afreximbank did similarly during COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, stepping in when global shocks hit African economies hardest. This time, it’s also working with institutions like the African Union to push longer-term fixes like stronger supply chains and energy security.

😮‍💨Crisis averted: While the world’s petrol industry is in chaos, staff at Seplat Energy, which accounts for roughly 7–9% of the country’s oil production, launched an indefinite strike over salary and employee welfare disputes. During the strike, they slowed down key operations like production reporting and exports. Not ideal when global oil prices are rising, and Nigeria is under pressure to pump more crude and earn more FX. The strike covered both onshore and offshore assets, making it a potentially serious disruption if it dragged on. But about 24 hours later, the union (PENGASSAN) suspended the strike after getting written commitments on pay and reopening talks involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. Operations have now resumed while the union reps and authorities talk. Crisis averted, but it’s a reminder that a lot of Nigeria’s most critical sectors are only as stable as the workers keeping them running.

⛏️EU crypto collaboration: Stablecoins are growing fast in Nigeria, but mostly for saving and cross-border transfers. Nigeria’s crypto industry processed $92 billion in crypto transactions in 2025, but moving from a digital wallet to something as simple as buying groceries or withdrawing cash remains clunky, fragmented, and often expensive. Kulipa is trying to smooth that over by letting fintechs issue debit-like cards directly funded by stablecoin balances, so users can spend crypto without manually converting to naira each time. The partnership with Flutterwave gives the idea real distribution muscle, but it doesn’t remove the underlying questions. Kulipa’s model leans on on-chain settlement and removes prefunding requirements, which is technically efficient, yet success still depends on regulatory clarity, user trust, and whether people actually prefer this over existing payment methods.

Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to stop introducing new policies and regulatory changes for now. The goal isn’t to slow governance, it’s to stop the kind of policy whiplash that businesses experience in Nigeria.

Instead of rolling out new rules on the fly, MDAs are being asked to first align with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework introduced in 2025. Requiring government agencies to cross every ‘t’ and provide clean, verifiable data before they see the light of day.

The era of “trust me” policy is (supposedly) over

According to PEBEC Director-General Princess Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, no new reform will move forward without a clear, evidence-based justification. The idea is to reduce policy shocks: those moments when a new regulation lands and businesses scramble to adjust overnight.

The council is also trying to tackle Nigeria’s long-standing reputation of inconsistency. Frequent reversals, overlapping directives, and unclear implementation have historically made it harder for businesses and investors to plan with confidence.

What MDAs need to do instead of launching new policies

Rather than introducing new rules, agencies are expected to go back to the drawing board and ensure any proposed changes pass through the RIA Framework. That means evaluating potential economic impact, consulting stakeholders, and validating outcomes before implementation.

The bigger picture: consistency over speed

This directive fits into a broader reform push aimed at improving Nigeria’s ease of doing business. Over the past few years, the government has been nudging MDAs toward digitisation, paperless workflows, and more structured decision-making processes.

By forcing policies through an evidence-based filter, the hope is to create a more stable regulatory environment where businesses aren’t constantly reacting to sudden changes.

Why this matters for the real economy

For businesses, especially MSMEs, policy uncertainty can be expensive. Sudden fees, compliance changes, or registration hurdles can slow down operations or even push firms into informality.

PEBEC’s approach is essentially trying to reduce that friction by ensuring that, before any new rule is introduced, it goes through a stress test. If it works as intended, Nigeria could see fewer abrupt regulatory shifts and a more predictable business climate.

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