🍞 Overhaul overall

Hello and happy almost weekend!

Adetomiwa here, writing to you from Lagos.

This edition covers Nigeria’s recent aggressive reforms and the many ways they have affected the economy. The government has numbers to show for its reforms, like lower inflation rates and steadier reserves. On paper, Nigeria's economy is in better shape than it was two years ago.

But ask anyone buying tomatoes in Mile 12 or filling up their generator, and the picture looks different. The World Bank put it plainly this week: growth is happening, it's just not landing where people can feel it.

That gap between the macro story and the lived one is what this edition is about.

The CBN says a new foreign exchange manual is coming soon, designed to attract inflows and make the FX market more transparent. The goal is fewer heavy-handed interventions, more market-driven pricing. According to Muhammad Abdullahi, the deputy governor of the CBN, this shift is already happening. He says Nigeria has been spending less money trying to stabilise the economy and is now placing more reliance on supply and demand to set the rate.

On paper, that’s what investors want to hear. In practice, it’s still a trust exercise. The goal is to convince foreign capital that Nigeria’s FX market won’t suddenly change rules mid-game (again). If that works, more inflows follow. If not, the economy stalls.

CBN’s “disinflation” journey

Even with all the reform talk, inflation is still doing the most. The CBN says it’s on a “disinflation journey,” aiming for single digits eventually. For context, as of February 2026, the average inflation rate was 15.06%, and according to CBN data, it has reduced by about 0.06% every month since December 2025. Slow and steady?

Nigeria’s Ministry of Finance recognises that things are more expensive, but says at least things are available. No petrol queues, steady supply, and a more “resilient” system overall, even as global shocks (hi, Middle East crisis) push costs higher. The trade-off (hopefully not for long) is stability over affordability, at least for now.

Now for the bigger problem: businesses can’t get money

While FX gets the headlines, the real structural issue is credit, or the lack of it.

The CBN says Nigeria’s development finance institutions (DFIs) have just over ₦8 trillion in assets against a need of more than ₦130 trillion for MSMEs. So the plan is to recapitalise and restructure these institutions to make them more “bankable” and actually capable of lending at scale.

The idea is to combine stronger DFIs with newly recapitalised commercial banks (which just raised about ₦4.6 trillion) to push more credit into the real economy without forcing banks to lend where they don’t want to.

The juggling act

Nigeria is trying to fix multiple pressure points at the same time: stabilise the currency, tame inflation, attract foreign capital, and unlock financing for businesses.

There are early signs of progress, like external balances improving and inflation (slowly) easing. But the risks haven’t gone anywhere. High prices are still squeezing households, and without real access to credit, businesses can’t fully drive growth.

So yes, the reforms are moving. The real question is whether they can move fast enough for people to actually feel the difference.

If this is useful, don't gatekeep. Forward this to one person who needs it. That's how we grow 🍞

Share your link —> Copy Your Referral Link

More Ways to Share

🍽️ Nigeria is expanding its oil menu. Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has launched a new crude grade, Cawthorne, and already shipped its first 950,000-barrel cargo to the Netherlands. Cawthorne is reportedly highly valued in the global market for its superior petrol and diesel yields. With new grades like Nembe, Utapate, and now Cawthorne, the goal is to boost output, diversify exports, and inch closer to ambitious production targets. Hopefully, this translates to higher, more consistent oil revenues (Nigeria’s eternal struggle).

🍻Zenith Bank’s growth spurt: After opening a branch in Manchester, UK, about a month ago, Zenith Bank has now journeyed into East Africa with the 100% acquisition of Kenya’s Paramount Bank for about $7.7 million. The deal gives Zenith an immediate foothold in a competitive but fast-growing banking market, even if Paramount itself is a relatively small player. Nigerian banks are steadily expanding across the continent, chasing growth beyond saturated home markets and following customers into new regions. For Zenith, Kenya is less about scale today and more about positioning for tomorrow, plugging into East Africa’s trade flows and digital banking boom before everyone else fully crowds in.

📈Cybercrime in Africa: Global losses hit a record $20.8 billion in 2025, with over 1 million complaints filed and victims losing an average of $20,699 each. While the biggest volumes still come from highly digitised economies, Nigeria ranked 12th among foreign countries filing cybercrime complaints with the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Centre in 2025, with 1,219 reports submitted. The list, which launched in 2024, had South Africa and Ghana on the inaugural edition, but this is Nigeria’s first ranking. As fintech, mobile banking, and crypto adoption accelerate across Africa, so do the scams — phishing, identity theft, and "investment opportunities" that disappear faster than your OTP expires. The good news is that Nigeria recently exited the FATF grey list and has launched a pilot to supervise its crypto sector.

Nigeria’s economy is still expanding at a steady pace. The country has had around 4% GDP growth every year over the past couple of years, driven largely by services like ICT, finance, and real estate.

Government officials are leaning into that narrative, describing the economy as being in a tough but necessary transition. The message is basically ‘yes, things are expensive, but the system is becoming more transparent and stable’. No fuel queues, rising revenues, stronger reserves. It’s all progress, just not the comfortable kind.

So yes, the engine is running.

But inflation is still doing some damage

Just because the economy is growing doesn’t mean people are enjoying it.

Nigeria’s Inflation has come down from its peak (around 33% in December 2024 to ~15% in February 2026), but it’s still high, and rising fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict aren’t helping. Petrol costs have jumped over 50%, feeding into transport, food, and basically everything else.

The result? Growth on paper, pressure in real life. The World Bank is pretty blunt about it: high inflation is a direct risk to incomes and poverty reduction. If prices keep rising, the benefits of all these reforms won’t trickle down anytime soon.

Policy advice: stay disciplined (and don’t panic)

The recommendation from the World Bank is essentially: don’t undo the reforms now. Save the extra cash from higher oil prices, keep monetary policy tight, and avoid returning to blanket subsidies. There’s also a suggestion to ease restrictions on fuel imports to help stabilise prices.

The bigger issue: growth isn’t translating to outcomes

Beyond all the macro talk, there’s a more undeniable reality: Nigeria’s human development indicators are still in crisis territory.

Child mortality remains high, nearly 40% of children are stunted, and more than half don’t meet basic developmental milestones before school. Nigeria’s Development Update report emphasises that economic reforms alone won’t fix this. Without sustained investment in health, nutrition, and education, growth won’t translate into better living standards.

The bottom line

Nigeria’s economy is proving more resilient than expected in the face of global shocks, which is a win. But resilience isn’t the same as relief. Until inflation comes down and growth starts showing up in everyday life, the economy might look better on paper than it feels on the ground.

We’ve just launched the Daily Bread Referral Program. It’s straightforward, you share the bread, and we give you a guide to make some more ;). Every month, for each referral you make, you’ll get an “Investing in the NGX” guide with what we think will move the markets that month.

It’s that simple, you only need 1 person to subscribe through your referral link for you to get the reward.