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Adetomiwa here 👋🏽. Hoping you pick up a wild side quest this weekend.

This edition tracks the Nigerian economy to see what’s actually shifting — from money flows and policy decisions to corporate results and market behaviour. It outlines what is changing, why it matters, and what it signals next for the economy and markets. We also discuss the latest RED Index, which shows Nigeria is still unprepared for large-scale industrialisation.

Read and leave feedback at [email protected].

Nigerian banks are having a rough couple of weeks. First, several major lenders were forced into heavy losses due to a $2 billion loan that they jointly allocated to Nestoil going bad, leading to lower profits, suspended dividends, and a regulatory push to fully recognise bad debt. Now, the CBN is tightening the screws again by telling banks to scale back how much of their capital is tied up in foreign subsidiaries.

The CBN says calm down
Just as banks are still cleaning up the fallout from risky oil and gas lending, the CBN has introduced another restriction aimed at reducing risk in the system. Nigerian banks can now only keep equity investments in overseas subsidiaries at 10% of shareholders’ funds, and Access Holdings Plc says it currently has 19.4%.

Which is awkward, because Access has spent the last few years collecting African banking subsidiaries the way travel influencers (and me soon, Amen?) collect passport stamps. Mauritius, Gambia, Tanzania, Kenya… if there was a banking asset for sale somewhere on the continent, Access was probably already in due diligence.

Why this matters
The timing here is doing a lot. Regulators are already forcing banks to fully recognise bad loans before paying dividends, after years of aggressive lending to the oil and gas sector. Now they’re also signalling that maybe Nigerian banks should stop exporting so much capital abroad while risks are still bubbling at home.

The CBN’s argument is essentially that Nigerian bank capital should primarily support the Nigerian economy, not disappear into an endless pan-African expansion montage.

The bigger shift
This does not mean Access Bank is suddenly packing up its continental ambitions and going home. The bank says it still plans to retain control of the subsidiaries even after reducing some stakes. But it does suggest the era of rapid-fire acquisitions may slow down as regulators prioritise stronger balance sheets over global ambition.

Bottom line
The CBN seems to be trying to force Nigerian banks into a less glamorous but more stable phase: recognise your bad loans, strengthen your balance sheet, and maybe pause the continental shopping spree for a second. For investors, it means fewer acquisitions, weaker profits, and delayed dividends. But regulators are betting that a more disciplined banking system now is better than discovering even bigger problems later.

💸 CBN’s working overtime: The CBN kicked off May 2026 with a ₦700 billion Treasury Bills auction, the first in the month and part of the government’s broader Q2 borrowing programme aimed at funding short-term obligations and managing liquidity. The issuance will be split across 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills, with most of the money targeted at the one-year paper, which typically attracts the strongest demand due to higher yields. Beyond just routine borrowing, the auction is also being watched as a signal of investor appetite and where interest rates might head next, especially with strong participation expected from pension funds and banks. It comes after an already heavy April, where the CBN overshot its borrowing target, and reinforces how dependent government financing remains on the domestic debt market to plug funding gaps.

🤝 Positive pensions prognosis: Nigeria’s pension industry has kept expanding. PenCom reports say that in March 2026, assets grew to a total of ₦29.52 trillion, a 0.31% increase from the previous month. The growth was mainly driven by steady gains in Federal Government securities and a mild uptick in equities, even as money market holdings continued to shrink. Beneath the surface, pension fund managers are clearly shifting strategy: reducing exposure to short-term instruments and leaning more into bonds, local equities, and alternative assets like REITs, which saw strong growth. Government securities still dominate the portfolio at over half of total assets, but the broader picture is one of gradual diversification, steady inflows, and a cautious hunt for yield in a tight liquidity environment.

🚘 Nigeria’s Electric Vehicles season: Nigeria has opened what reports say is Africa’s largest EV charging hub in Abuja, a major step in the country’s push into electric mobility. The facility, developed by Possible Electric Mobility, is designed to charge over 1,000 vehicles daily and is part of a broader ecosystem that combines charging infrastructure, vehicle financing, and fleet support to speed up EV adoption. The launch comes as government policies (like no import duties on EVs and mass transit buses) have started to lower entry barriers and attract private investment into the space, and Nigeria is experiencing heightened volatility in the price of petrol. While still early-stage, the project signals a shift toward cleaner transport infrastructure and positions Nigeria as an emerging player in Africa’s electric mobility race, assuming the electricity itself cooperates.

Africa’s latest industrialisation ranking shows Nigeria is still not structurally ready for large-scale industrial growth, despite some progress. The 2025 RED Index places Nigeria in the “meaningful progress but incomplete” category, alongside Rwanda, while only Morocco, Egypt, South Africa and Mauritius are considered fully positioned for sustained industrialisation.

Do those countries have two heads? No. The report says the main issue is structural rather than ambition, pointing to weak institutions, insecurity and corruption as key constraints slowing industrial development across much of the continent. In Nigeria’s case, the takeaway is that while reforms and activity exist, the underlying systems needed to scale manufacturing and industry consistently are still not fully in place.

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