🍞 No cutting corners

Hello!

Nigeria just crossed 53% broadband penetration, meaning for the first time, over half the country is online! With this (hopefully) comes more access to education, more inclusivity, and more TikTok trends from every corner of the country.

And with the plans the FG has for internet expansion, we might just see more TikTok shenanigans this year. Scroll down to see what's coming. Log in and stay tuned.

For years, getting money from abroad often meant dollars landing in your account. That's now over. The CBN has told all international money transfer operators (IMTOs) to route remittances through naira settlement accounts, so any money coming into the country gets paid out in naira locally, regardless of what currency it started as. Yes, even if your sister in Houston sent dollars.

Why the CBN is doing this

The short version: they want to see where the money goes. Nigeria pulls in over $20 billion in diaspora remittances every year (one of the country's biggest sources of foreign exchange), and a chunk of it has historically moved through informal channels, invisible to the official system. This policy is the CBN's way of saying: if this much money is coming in, we want to track all of it.

There's also a pricing fix baked in. IMTOs now have to set their exchange rates using real-time market data, which should, in theory, shrink the gap between official and black market rates and make it harder to play arbitrage games.

What this means for you

The biggest shift is psychological as much as financial. You lose the option of holding dollars locally, so you're fully exposed to whatever the exchange rate is at the moment the transfer lands. Whether that's a good or bad deal depends entirely on when the naira is having a good day.

The real test

Will people stick to official channels or find more convenient ones? That answer will matter a lot more than the policy itself.

🏦The National Bureau of Statistics says Nigeria pulled in $6.44 billion in foreign capital in Q4 2025, up 26% year-on-year and a modest bump from the previous quarter. Sounds like a comeback story, but look closer and it’s less “investors building factories” and more “investors chasing yields.” 85% of inflows came from foreign portfolio investments (stocks, bonds, money that can leave as quickly as it arrived), while actual long-term investment (the kind that creates jobs) made up just 5.5%. The banking sector alone attracted nearly 60% of total inflows, with funds largely coming from the UK and US and routed through players like Stanbic IBTC and Standard Chartered. In short, confidence is creeping back, but it’s cautious, selective, and not exactly planting roots yet.

🚢Entering the 21st century: The Federal Government of Nigeria is trying to fix port delays with the launch of the first phase of its National Single Window, a digital platform designed to centralise trade documentation and cut out the endless back-and-forth between agencies. The urgency is real: clearing cargo in Nigeria currently takes 18–21 days, compared to a global average of 4 days, and about 73% of that delay is due to paperwork, not physical congestion. Paired with upgrades at Apapa Port and Tin Can Island Port, the government is aiming to cut clearance times to under seven days by 2026. If it works, businesses get cheaper logistics, exporters become more competitive, and Nigeria looks a lot more serious about trade.

💻Nigerians are online: Nigerian Communications Commission says Nigeria’s internet usage has increased by 168% in just three years as more people stream, scroll, pay, and work online. Data consumption has been growing at a steady ~38% annually, helped by over $1 billion in telecom investments and thousands of new network sites. Broadband penetration has now crossed 53%, meaning over half the country is online at decent speeds. Now the government wants to build for what comes next. Under a $2 billion fibre expansion plan, Nigeria is aiming to more than triple its fibre network and improve access nationwide, starting with about $6 million spent on consultants to figure out how to actually pull it off.

The country was supposed to hit about 1.84 million barrels per day to support its 2026 budget. Instead, it’s been hovering well below that with output dropping as low as ~1.48 million bpd in February. Over just two months, that gap snowballed into a 16.6 million barrel shortfall.

And this is happening while global oil prices are high and Nigeria has just started to export petrol to other countries. So Nigeria isn’t just underproducing, it’s under-earning at the exact moment it should be cashing in.

Zoom in a bit, and things get tense.

While production is underperforming, expectations haven’t exactly adjusted. The government still needs revenue, the market still needs supply, and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is right in the middle, trying to balance exports, domestic obligations, and past commitments (including crude that was already “front-sold”).

The result is a tug-of-war over limited barrels. On one side: export commitments and global buyers. On the other: domestic refining and energy security. And with fewer barrels to go around, everyone’s starting to notice the squeeze.

Directly affects supply to Dangote Refinery

Enter the Dangote Refinery — aka the facility that’s supposed to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports.

In theory, it should be getting 13 to 15 cargoes of crude monthly. In reality? It’s getting about five. That gap means the refinery can’t operate anywhere near full capacity, which then affects how much fuel it can produce locally.

And it gets messier:

The refinery says it’s paying full international prices and also sometimes getting the “wrong” crude grades. To compensate, it’s importing crude at a premium. And the costs will naturally trickle down to final consumers.

The bigger picture: one problem, multiple consequences

When you step back, it’s all connected: Lower production means = less revenue. Less available crude = harder allocation decisions. Allocation gaps = domestic refining struggles. Which leads back to fuel prices, FX pressure, and the broader economy.

Next steps

The government is already trying to fix the supply side. The FG is fast-tracking approvals to restart idle wells and squeeze more output from existing assets. The FG also lifted its ban on fuel imports after pausing imports earlier this month. But those are medium-term fixes.

Right now, the reality is that Nigeria has oil, just not enough of it flowing where (and when) it’s needed. And until that changes, petrol prices will continue to be unpredictable.