Nigeria's petrol import bill surges almost 1,000% despite Dangote refinery ramp-up

Nigeria's petrol import bill surged almost 1000% quarter-on-quarter to ₦952.15 billion ($700 million) in Q2 2026, up sharply from ₦87.40 billion in Q1.

The reversal: Despite the quarterly surge, the value of petrol imports was 59.9% lower than the ₦2.38 trillion recorded in Q2 2025. Petrol imports accounted for 6.6% of Nigeria's total imports in Q2 2026, compared with just 0.64% in Q1 2026.

The paradox: The increase comes as the Dangote refinery continues to scale up operations, with maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026 increasing capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 b/d. Average imported petrol supply fell 17.8% from 11.23 million litres per day in Q1 to 9.23 million litres per day in Q2, even as the naira value of imports jumped.

Why it matters

The sharp increase in imports has intensified the growing dispute between Dangote Refinery and petroleum marketers over the continued inflow of foreign petrol into the country.

For Nigerian investors: The volatility underscores forex exposure risks in downstream energy plays. While Dangote Refinery's IPO opened on Monday, September 14, at ₦525 per share with plans to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, the import rebound signals that self-sufficiency remains “aspirational” at best. Energy sector stocks (TOTAL, OANDO, 11 Plc on the NGX) face continued margin pressure from import-dependent competition, even as Nigeria aims to become a net exporter.

What to look out for

Watch Q3 2026 import data to confirm whether the Q2 spike was seasonal or structural. Dangote's crude supply agreement with NNPC and the outcome of its legal challenge to marketers' import licences will determine whether Nigeria sustains lower import dependence or continues stop-start reliance on foreign petrol.