Nigeria's export record is oil, wearing a new outfit

Nigeria sold more non-crude than crude abroad for the first time in at least six years last quarter. The crowd is calling it diversification. Follow the barrel and it is the same oil, one step refined.

Driving the news: Non-crude oil exports reached N14.11tn (about $10.3bn) in the second quarter of 2026, edging past crude at N12.91tn (about $9.5bn), according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Crude's share of exports fell to 47.8%, its lowest in NBS records going back to 2020.

The long arc: Crude was about 75% of exports as recently as the second quarter of 2024, and roughly 81% across 2023, per NBS data compiled by Intelpoint. The drop below half has taken barely two years.

Why it matters: The trade surplus doubled to N12.60tn (about $9.2bn) from N6.26tn a year earlier. Because the naira was stronger this year, the dollar surplus grew even faster, from roughly $4.0bn to $9.2bn. External reserves reached about $49.6bn by quarter-end, per Parthian Capital. Nigeria is earning more abroad and keeping more of it, in the currency the diaspora measures in.

Follow the barrel: The non-crude that overtook crude is not farms or factories. It is kerosene-type jet fuel at N2.94tn, natural gas at N2.82tn and urea at N2.12tn, per NBS product data. Each is a hydrocarbon or a gas derivative. Genuinely non-oil products stayed stuck at 13.8% of total exports.

Where it is going: India was the top destination at N3.29tn (about $2.4bn), with refined fuels making up more than two-thirds of that, per NBS country data. Spain, the Netherlands, the United States and Togo rounded out the top five. Urea alone earned N1.07tn, most of it sold to the United States. The refined and processed export story is real, and it already has buyers.

Yes, but: The categories that build jobs went backwards. Agricultural exports fell to N802.99bn (about $588m), down 36% on the year. Manufactured goods exports fell to N393.03bn (about $288m), down 51% on the year, per NBS. Both dropped in naira and in dollars. What rose alongside refined fuel was raw materials, up 181% to N2.31tn, and solid minerals, up 90% to N146.91bn, meaning unprocessed goods dug up rather than made.

The food paradox: While farm exports fell 36%, agricultural imports rose to N1.20tn, up slightly on the year and 45% on the quarter, NBS data show. Nigeria sold less food abroad and bought more of it in, the opposite direction from the food self-sufficiency the government has long promoted.

What Nigeria buys: Look at the other side of the ledger and the dependence is plain. Machinery and transport equipment was the single largest import at N5.46tn, or 38% of the bill, followed by chemicals at N2.51tn and manufactured goods at N1.87tn, per NBS. Nigeria still imports the machines, chemicals and finished goods it needs to make things, even as it sells more fuel. It even bought N786.7bn of crude petroleum to feed its own refining.

The engine: The whole shift tracks the Dangote refinery, which Aliko Dangote says now runs at 710,000 barrels per day. NBS data show it has cut the fuel-import bill by two-thirds to N1.91tn (about $1.4bn) and made Nigeria a net fuel exporter. That is a genuine change in how the economy earns. It is also still oil.

The big picture: Analysts cited by Leadership read the quarter the same way. Petroleum still anchors Nigeria's external accounts, and diversification into agriculture and manufacturing has not taken hold.

Watch: Whether refined-product exports can outlast the crude they depend on, whether farms and factories recover the ground they lost, and whether a food-import bill rising this fast starts to eat into the surplus.