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Nigeria owes the International Development Association (IDA) $18.7 billion as of the end of 2025, up $1.9 billion from a year ago. With the latest increase, the country is the third-largest IDA borrower, just behind Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Why the uptick?

Simply put, Abuja is leaning more on cheap, concessional loans to fund health, education, and infrastructure projects, especially as revenue tightens and global uncertainty looms. IDA loans are easier on the wallet than commercial borrowing (long maturities and low interest), but piling them up still adds to Nigeria’s external debt.

The internal vs external split

Most of Nigeria’s debt is coming from inside the country. Roughly 46.6% of Nigeria’s total debt is from external sources, while domestic borrowing covers the rest. Of that external debt, the World Bank alone holds over 41%, underscoring just how central multilateral lenders have become to Nigeria’s development funding.

The experts are speaking

Experts say that deficit financing is not unusual globally and can support economic growth when used productively. However, without strong revenue and sustainable plans to cover repayments, we could end up in another vicious cycle of borrowing from place A to pay back debt collector B.

Bottom line:

Concessional loans are cheap and useful, but the growing stack of World Bank debt (coupled with Nigeria’s “promise and fail” history in development) is a reminder that borrowing is probably not how we’re going to get out of survival mode. Smart spending and steady revenue growth matter more than ever.

⛏️ Nigeria is betting big on its mining sector: The government’s new Industrial Policy aims to grow mining’s share of GDP to 8% by 2030 and 10% by 2035, create 500,000 jobs, and attract $1 billion in foreign investment annually. The sector has shown promise, with Foreign Direct Investment rising from $78 million in 2019 to $100 million in 2022, and mineral production jumping nearly 40% in a year. Nigeria is sitting on a treasure trove of coal, gold, tin, gemstones, and more, and the plan includes incentives, value-added processing, and industrial parks to turn raw minerals into local manufacturing wins. But the boom comes with a dark side: at least 37 miners recently died from carbon monoxide poisoning in a dormant lead mine in Plateau State, and illegal mining, already a huge problem, is gaining more traction across the country. The policy is ambitious, but turning Nigeria’s mineral wealth into safe, sustainable, and inclusive growth is the real challenge.

⛽ You win some, you lose some: Seplat’s shares jumped 57% to ₦9,100 ($5.69) following news that Maurel & Prom sold its 20% stake to Heirs Energies, led by Tony Elumelu, in a $496 million deal. The stock rally reflects some trust in the market and in Seplat’s abilities. With a market cap of ₦5.46 trillion ($3.41 billion), Seplat remains one of Nigeria’s most valuable energy firms. Analysts also say the recent naira recalibration boosted the deal’s appeal. Meanwhile, regional crude faces pressure from surging freight costs and widening Brent-Dubai spreads, making West African barrels less attractive to Asian refiners. Supertanker rates on Middle East–China routes hit $157,000/day, the highest since 2020, as global supply and geopolitical tensions drive shipping costs higher. So while Seplat investors cheer, broader West African exports are navigating a tougher global market.

🕵🏽‍♂️ NGX is looking under Zichis's hood: The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has suspended trading in Zichis Agro-Allied Industries Plc shares pending a regulatory closer look into their unusual trading activity. The suspension was triggered by the company’s stocks growing by 772% barely a month after their IPO. Over the past month, Zichis led the NGX in performance, appreciating 563% in just four weeks and trading 118 million shares worth N721 million. The suspension aligns with NGX’s policies created to protect investors and maintain orderly markets. They say trading can resume if investigations don’t find any funny business. But Zichis management doesn’t seem too worried.

🐬 Kebbi’s fishing festival: After a six-year hiatus, Nigeria’s Argungu International Fishing Festival returned, drawing over 50,000 attendees. Beyond the spectacle, the event boosted the local economy: fishermen sold their catch, and cash prizes circulated in the community. Federal-state coordination, security planning, and investments in agriculture and tourism helped revive the festival, hinting at some restored economic potential in Kebbi State.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has shaved its benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27% to 26.5%. The move was announced by Olayemi Cardoso, the governor, at the end of the 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja.

Why it matters:

For the first time since 2020 (and the first cut since September 2025), Nigeria’s central bank is signalling a shift from “how high can we go?” to “maybe let’s not scare the economy too much.” Inflation has been easing (slowly but surely) from 15.15% in December 2025 to 15.10% in January 2026. Nothing to throw a party over, but it's enough for the MPC to feel confident opening the door to growth.

The Fine Print (Because we’ve done the reading)

In other words, CBN is giving borrowers a narrow window while keeping the financial system's safety net intact.

Who does this affect?

This cut is the lowest since May 2024 (26.25%), and signals that the CBN is willing to dip its toe in growth without fully letting go of its tight grip on the economy.