🍞Money in motion

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Adetomiwa here, encouraging you to get weird this weekend. Whatever that means to you 😉

This edition covers money, and where it’s moving (or not) in Nigeria right now. The CBN is pulling cash out of the system even as investors pile into high yields, airlines are getting government relief as fuel costs squeeze operations, and the finance minister reshuffle adds a political layer to economic policy.

Read, then enjoy your weekend!

The Central Bank of Nigeria raised N1.9 trillion at its latest Open Market Operations (OMO) auction, far above the N600 billion it initially offered, as investors submitted more than N2.2 trillion in bids. On the surface, it looks like routine liquidity management. In reality, it reflects a financial system still carrying a lot of cash, with investors actively searching for where to park it.

Investors avoid the middle entirely

Instead of spreading demand evenly across maturities, investors concentrated their money at the extremes. They rushed into very short-term bills that offer quick access to cash, and also into longer-term bills that lock in returns for a longer period. The 91-day option was largely ignored, attracting only a small fraction of demand compared to the other tenors.

Why the 91-day bill lost appeal

The weak demand for the 91-day instrument reflects how investors are thinking rather than any single technical issue. It sits in an awkward position offering neither the flexibility of short-term bills nor enough extra reward to justify locking money in for longer. As a result, it ends up being the least attractive option when investors are forced to choose.

A market split between speed and patience

The behaviour across tenors points to a simple divide. Some investors prefer short-term placements so they can quickly adjust if interest rates shift. Others believe current yields are high and may not last, so they are choosing to lock in returns for longer. Very few are willing to sit in the middle, where the trade-off feels less rewarding.

High rates, but little differentiation

Even though yields remain elevated across all maturities, the differences between them are narrow. That small spread is enough to shape behaviour. When returns are similar, investors stop thinking in terms of compromise and instead move to whichever end better matches their strategy, either flexibility or lock-in.

CBN continues to drain liquidity from the system

The scale of the auction also reflects the central bank’s ongoing effort to reduce excess liquidity. Even after significant repayments earlier in the week, the CBN still managed to absorb most of the money back through this sale. The system remains flush with cash, but the central bank is steadily pulling it in.

What the market is really signalling

Overall, the auction shows a market that is liquid but cautious. Money is not sitting still, but it is also not moving evenly. Instead, it is split between speed and patience, with very little appetite for anything in between.

✈️Airlines are getting some relief: After airlines warned that they could be forced to shut down due to the surge in Jet A1 fuel prices, the Federal Government has stepped in with emergency relief measures to keep operations going. The intervention follows growing pressure from operators who say the cost of aviation fuel has reached levels that are no longer sustainable for routine flight operations. As part of the response, the government has approved short-term relief for some debts some airlines owe, and indicated plans to review multiple taxes and charges embedded in airfares. The goal, according to officials, is to reduce the immediate financial burden on airlines and prevent disruptions to air transport services. At the same time, broader reforms to the cost structure of the aviation sector are being considered.

👨🏽‍⚖️ Surprise Shuffle: President Bola Tinubu has replaced his finance minister, Wale Edun, in an interestingly timed cabinet reshuffle less than a year before the next elections. Edun, a former World Bank official and key figure in Tinubu’s economic reform programme since 2023, is being replaced by Taiwo Oyedele, a junior finance minister who previously led work on the country’s tax overhaul. The presidency said the changes are aimed at improving coordination and delivery in government. Edun’s tenure was central to some of the government’s most aggressive economic reforms in decades, including the removal of fuel subsidies and broader efforts to attract investment and stabilise public finances. While these steps helped boost investor confidence, they also coincided with a cost-of-living crisis. Officials say his exit is not linked to performance, but the timing has drawn attention, given the scale of reforms still underway and the political context ahead of elections.

💸 Africa’s reserves are thriving: Africa’s central bank reserves rose to about $530 billion in 2025, driven largely by higher gold prices and a broader shift toward holding stronger external buffers. Across the continent, countries are increasingly building reserves to cushion against currency volatility and global economic uncertainty, with gold playing a bigger role in that strategy. Nigeria fits into this wider picture with a mixed but improving trajectory. The country closed 2025 with external reserves of about $45.5 billion, up from $40.8 billion at the start of the year, supported by oil revenues and inflows from bonds and remittances. The Central Bank has also projected reserves could rise further to $51.04 billion in 2026. However, there has been some short-term pressure: reserves slipped in mid-April 2026. Even so, the broader position remains relatively stable. Net foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.8 billion at the end of 2025, suggesting improved external liquidity beneath the surface fluctuations.

Nigeria’s startup funding slowed in Q1 2026, with companies raising a total of $78.6 million across 15 deals. This is about 28% less than the same period last year. While investor interest is still present, the numbers point to a more cautious environment, with fewer deals and smaller overall capital deployed compared to Q1 2025.

The key story is how concentrated the funding has become. Nearly all of the money raised in the quarter went into a handful of large deals, mainly in deeptech, fintech, and logistics. Big raises from companies like Terra Industries and MAX accounted for a significant share of total funding, while most other startups raised relatively small amounts or relied on debt financing. The result is a market where capital is still flowing, but increasingly into fewer, larger, and more established bets rather than being spread across the ecosystem.

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