Happy Monday, and Happy International Women's Month! Thank God for Women.

If you filled your tank in Lagos this weekend, you may have noticed petrol prices rising pretty quickly. Pump prices across the city now sit around ₦1,020–₦1,080 per litre at major stations, according to a BusinessDay survey. Some independent stations are already pushing past ₦1,200.

Price swings themselves aren’t new. Nigeria’s petrol prices have been fluctuating since subsidies were officially removed in 2023. However, the latest jump is tied to something happening far outside Nigeria: rising global oil prices triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

We broke down the impact in this Daily Bread edition last week. The gist: Nigeria may produce crude, but its petrol prices still move with global markets. So when oil rises, pump prices usually follow.

Dangote’s refinery also raised prices

The Dangote Refinery, now Nigeria’s biggest domestic fuel supplier, raised its petrol price from ₦774 to ₦995 per litre within days. That’s roughly a 29% jump in less than a week, and petrol retailers have naturally passed the cost to regular consumers.

One reason is crude sourcing. Around 65% of the refinery’s crude supply comes from international markets, and the conflict has pushed those prices higher, which feeds directly into refining costs.

There’s also fresh uncertainty in the market. Reports indicate that petrol loading had been halted at the refinery, so the price might be even higher by the end of today.

Meanwhile, Nigerian gas is literally sailing toward Asia

It’s not just oil reacting to global prices. Nigeria’s gas exports are also chasing the money. Shipping data shows a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker loaded gas at the Nigeria LNG terminal in Bonny, initially signalled it was heading to Europe. Then it changed course and started sailing toward Asia instead.

Why? The price difference

Asia’s benchmark LNG price recently jumped almost 69% to about $25 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit (mmBtu), while European prices are closer to $15 per mmBtu.

💸It’s raining VAT: Proshare and the National Bureau of Statistics report that Nigeria collected ₦2.3 trillion in VAT in Q3 2025. That’s about 11% more than the previous quarter and 28% higher than the same time last year. Basically, Nigerians are spending (and getting taxed) more. Most of the money came from transactions inside Nigeria (₦1.1 trillion). By sector, manufacturing brought in the biggest slice of VAT, followed by telecoms and tech, and then mining. The administrative services and entertainment sectors had a particularly good quarter, while real estate took a big dip.

🏦Sweet sweet money: Nigeria is putting ₦10 billion on the table to help grow its domestic sugar industry. The National Sugar Development Council (NSDC) and the Bank of Industry (BOI) have launched the Sugar Project Acceleration Fund, designed to support new sugar farms and processing projects across the country. The fund will mainly help companies turn sugar ideas into “investor-ready” projects by supporting feasibility studies, financial models, and project planning. They believe the bigger problem isn’t a lack of funding, it’s a lack of well-prepared projects. Only businesses involved in sugar production or related activities can access the fund, and BOI will handle the financing while the sugar council provides technical guidance. The bigger goal: reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported sugar and build a more competitive local sugar industry.

🔌 Powerful power projects: The federal government is setting up a new state-owned company, GAMCO (Generation Asset Management Company), to tackle one of Nigeria’s most persistent electricity problems: power that exists but can’t reach where it’s needed. A committee led by Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila has been tasked with determining how the company will operate. Members include key ministers across finance, power, petroleum, communications, aviation, and justice, alongside regulators and energy experts. The pilot project will focus on the Benin–Lagos transmission corridor, one of the country’s most important power routes, supplying electricity to major industrial hubs like Lagos and Ogun. The plan is to unlock about 1,600 megawatts of stranded power within two years by optimising 3 government-owned plants: Omotosho, Olorunsogo, and Ihovbor, and building a new high-capacity transmission line. If it works, the government hopes the model can be replicated across other parts of Nigeria’s power sector.

Nigeria’s banks have been in a bit of a financial gym session over the past two years. The CBN kicked off a recapitalisation drive in 2024 that requires banks to dramatically boost their capital buffers. Under the new rules, banks with international licences must hold ₦500 billion in minimum capital, while national banks need ₦200 billion and regional banks ₦50 billion.

For context: this isn’t the first time Nigerian banks have had to bulk up. A similar recapitalisation exercise in 2004 reduced the number of banks from 89 to 25 after a wave of mergers. This time around, the deadline is March 31, 2026 and the industry has been scrambling to get there.

How did FCMB raise the money?

FCMB got there through a mix of fundraising moves. First, the group launched a public offer that raised about ₦231.8 billion. It then raised another ₦11 billion by selling roughly 10% of its pension subsidiary, FCMB Pensions Limited.

With regulatory approvals now secured from the CBN, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Nigeria, and the National Pension Commission, the group says it has completed the recapitalisation exercise for its banking arm, First City Monument Bank Limited.

FCMB isn’t alone

GTCO, SterlingHoldCo, and, according to the CBN, 28 other Nigerian banks have already met the new capital requirements, while a handful are still undergoing regulatory verification. The recapitalisation push is happening against a backdrop of stronger profits across the sector. FCMB, for instance, reported pre-tax profits of ₦200.9 billion in 2025, an 80% jump from the previous year, with gross earnings crossing ₦1.1 trillion.

CBN: helping banks help themselves

At its core, recapitalisation is about making banks stronger and more shock-resistant. Nigeria’s economy has become larger and more complex since the last big banking overhaul two decades ago. Regulators want banks with enough capital to finance bigger projects, withstand economic shocks, and compete globally.

And if history is any guide, recapitalisation deadlines tend to trigger a flurry of fundraising and the occasional surprise bank coupling before the dust settles.