Hi! The Daily Bread has officially crossed 100 subscribers 🥳. So, let’s do a little throwback to our very first intro: “If you’re reading this, it means you are either really serious, somewhat keen, or a little curious about Nigeria’s business world. Like a Nigerian wedding where a guest list is really just a suggestion, all are welcome. Grab a chair, order your Abula, let’s get into it!”

For the second consecutive month, Nigeria has not issued new petrol import licences. Regulators are now enforcing a rule in the Petroleum Industry Act that allows petrol imports only when domestic production cannot meet demand. This means that as long as Nigerian refineries can supply the market, imports should stop.

Industry groups representing local refiners are cheering the move. For years, they’ve argued that allowing heavy imports made it nearly impossible for domestic refineries to compete. The most active stakeholder, Dangote refinery, sued regulators last year, arguing that continued import approvals undermined local refining. This policy shift is essentially a nod in agreement.

Nigeria in the big leagues; Dangote in the lead

Nigeria consumed about 56.9 million litres of petrol per day in February. Dangote alone supplied 36.5 million litres daily, covering roughly 64% of national demand. The refinery also signed supply agreements with 12 fuel marketers to deliver 60-65 million litres per day into the Nigerian market. If those numbers hold, Dangote could soon cover nearly the entire country’s petrol demand.

Meanwhile, fuel prices are still wild

Even as imports fall, petrol prices remain volatile. The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran pushed fuel prices higher worldwide. In Nigeria, petrol prices have jumped more than 50% in the past week. Revisit Monday’s Daily Bread edition for more details.

But Dangote may be trying to cool things down. On Tuesday, the refinery cut its petrol ex-depot price by ₦100, bringing it to ₦1,075 per litre, while diesel prices dropped ₦190 to ₦1,430. This lowered pump prices by the same amount in many petrol stations.

Looking ahead, the real test is whether Nigeria can keep the momentum behind local refining. Eche Idoko, spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, said the group has long pushed for tighter import controls. “We support any measure that helps protect local production,” he said.

💸 Bigger bet on China: Nigeria is negotiating to expand its Yuan-Naira currency swap with China from $2.5B to $10B, letting businesses pay in naira and receive yuan directly. The goal is to reduce reliance on the dollar, ease pressure on the naira, and narrow a $23B trade imbalance that heavily favours Beijing. Joseph Tegbe, DG of the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership, says the swap will streamline transactions and make bilateral trade faster and cheaper. Nigeria is also fast-tracking export protocols to take advantage of China’s zero-tariff policy for African countries starting May 2026. Products like cashews, crabs, and shrimp can now enter China legally and duty-free.

👋🏽 Lagos says, “Be my guest”: Lagos State will host the 2027 Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) from November 5–11, 2027, with deals expected to top $50 Billion. For Nigerian businesses, it’s a huge opportunity to tap into the continent’s growing market, showcase products, secure partnerships, and expand exports under the AfCFTA framework. The fair will highlight sectors such as manufacturing, the digital economy, infrastructure, agriculture, mining, and creative industries, giving local firms a chance to attract investment, build regional value chains, and create jobs. Essentially, it’s Nigeria’s turn to position itself as Africa’s trade hub.

🇳🇬Google has expanded its AI-powered search to include Yorùbá and Hausa. This brings the total number of African languages supported to 13. The update allows Nigerians to ask questions in their mother tongue and get quick summaries in the same language. According to Google’s West Africa communications manager, Taiwo Kola-Ogunlade, the move is part of a broader push to make AI and tools like Gemini more inclusive and locally relevant.

For decades, the economic model across much of Africa has been to mine minerals, export them raw, and import the finished products later. Governments now want to flip that script.

Rising global demand for iron ore (driven by infrastructure, urbanisation, and construction) is pushing policymakers to rethink the role of mining in economic development. Instead of shipping raw ore overseas, the goal is to process it locally into steel, build manufacturing capacity around it, and keep more of the value within African economies.

Development financiers like the Africa Finance Corporation estimate the continent holds roughly $8.6 trillion in untapped mineral wealth. The bet is that turning more of those resources into finished materials could strengthen local industries and reduce reliance on volatile commodity exports.

Nigeria is locked in

Nigeria is trying to rejoin that conversation by reviving one of its longest-running industrial ambitions: Ajaokuta Steel Company.

In Q4 of 2025, the federal government began exploring a partnership with China to rehabilitate the Ajaokuta steel complex and the National Iron Ore Mining Company in Itakpe, after earlier plans with Russia stalled due to the Russia–Ukraine war. The government has also identified 12 iron-ore deposits across the country that are currently being explored, part of a broader effort to build a domestic steel value chain. Beyond infrastructure, authorities say Ajaokuta could eventually support local industries, including supplying materials for Nigeria’s defence sector.

A wider African push

In South Africa, iron ore is now central to the country’s critical minerals strategy, with plans to attract roughly $125B in mining investment over the next five years. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, authorities are proposing a $28B special economic zone dedicated to processing iron ore into steel. And Guinea’s massive Simandou deposit, widely considered the world’s largest untapped iron-ore project, sits at the centre of the country’s long-term economic diversification strategy. Liberia is also scaling up production rapidly, expecting iron-ore output to triple this year as new projects come online.

Taken together, the projects suggest that Africa may be entering a new phase of mineral-driven industrial policy rather than one that is purely extractive mining. If capital, electricity, infrastructure, ports, and skilled labour all align, the shift could be transformative.