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Adetomiwa here, excited to announce to you that I had the best hair week. You can’t see it, but imagine really good hair.

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This newsletter depicts how Nigeria’s habit of constantly “adjusting mid-air” on a shaky foundation can quietly stunt progress over time. We see how policy decisions, economic pressures, and global shocks keep landing all at once, leaving the government in constant patch-fix mode and citizens carrying the extra weight in the form of rising costs and more bills than they bargained for.

Nigerian airlines are warning that operations could be suspended nationwide from April 20, 2026, as jet fuel prices spiral out of control. According to the Airline Operators of Nigeria, the price of Jet A1 has jumped from about ₦900 per litre in late February to roughly ₦3,300 per litre today. That’s an increase of more than 300%, which the group describes as “astronomical and artificial,” especially when compared with the roughly 30% rise in global crude oil prices over the same period.

The warning was issued by AON president Abdulmunaf Yunusa Sarina, who said airlines have already been absorbing the shock for weeks but can no longer sustain operations. In a notice circulated to fuel marketers and senior government officials, the group said the situation has become “unbearable” and warned that a full shutdown may be unavoidable without urgent intervention.

Global tensions are grounding local flights

The immediate trigger for the spike is not entirely domestic. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have disrupted global energy markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supply passes. Reports of closures, reopenings, and renewed threats have created volatility in oil prices and supply routes, feeding directly into higher fuel costs worldwide.

This instability has had a knock-on effect in Nigeria, which still relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products. While global crude prices have fluctuated, local jet fuel prices have surged far beyond global benchmarks, raising concerns about market distortions and supply inefficiencies.

Stall in local refining

The crisis has also revived scrutiny over Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity. With the Dangote Refinery increasingly supplying petroleum products locally, there were expectations that aviation fuel prices would begin to stabilise. However, that relief has not fully materialised in the aviation sector, raising questions about distribution, pricing structures, and market control.

For airlines, the pressure is now immediate and operational rather than theoretical. Fuel costs are consuming a growing share of revenue, and operators say the economics of flying in Nigeria are no longer viable under current conditions.

What would a shutdown actually mean?


Airlines have warned that the consequences of inaction would extend far beyond the aviation industry. While fare increases are one possible response, operators say higher ticket prices would likely suppress demand further, worsening the financial strain. A full suspension of flights, however, would disrupt connectivity, business activity, and mobility across the country, with wider implications for jobs and the broader economy.

For now, the industry is essentially waiting on government intervention, fuel market adjustments, or a broader stabilisation in global oil dynamics. Without that, Nigeria’s aviation sector is edging closer to a shutdown that would ripple far beyond the runway.

⚓️Nigeria’s running a tight (imports) ship: The FG is banning 17 categories of goods as part of a push to support local industries and reduce pressure on foreign exchange. The list covers a wide mix of items, from everyday medicines like paracetamol and antibiotics, to food staples like poultry, eggs, refined oils, sugar, and tomato paste. It also stretches into household essentials like soap, detergents, bottled water, and even ballpoint pens. On the industrial side, things like cement, some fertilisers, packaging materials, glass bottles, and certain steel products are also no longer allowed. The idea is to push more local production, but it also means importers are going to feel it immediately. Customs is expected to start enforcing the rules strictly, so businesses will have to adjust fast or risk losing goods at the border.

📚 Investment trust: Nigeria’s Debt Management Office says it raised N3.64 billion from the April 2026 FGN Savings Bond offer, showing steady interest from retail investors. The longer 3-year bond (offering about 14.08% yield) attracted most of the demand, pulling in more than three times the subscriptions of the 2-year option, as investors continue to prefer higher returns even if it means locking money away for longer. Overall, the result shows Nigerians are still actively putting money into government securities despite economic pressure, largely because the yields remain attractive compared to alternatives. It also reflects a broader trend where both retail and institutional investors are leaning more toward longer-term, higher-yield government debt as a way to preserve and grow value in a high-interest-rate environment.

💸 Expensive errors: Nearly ₦30 billion in pension contributions is currently stuck with Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) instead of being credited to workers’ Retirement Savings Accounts, according to the National Pension Commission (PenCom). The issue isn’t theft or loss. The money exists, but paperwork and employer-side errors like missing data, wrong pension PINs, and messy remittance schedules make it hard for PFAs to match payments to individual employees. A big chunk of the backlog is also concentrated in a few large PFAs, with Stanbic IBTC alone accounting for almost half of the uncredited funds. Experts say the problem reflects deeper weaknesses in Nigeria’s pension system, especially inconsistent employer compliance and poor data quality that have built up over time. While reforms like PenCom’s new online Pension Contribution Remittance System are meant to fix this by automating and validating payments in real time, the current backlog shows how long-standing the issue is.

Nigeria has introduced a new “green tax” on vehicles as part of its 2026 fiscal policy reforms, set to take effect from July 1, 2026. The surcharge will apply based on engine size: 2% for vehicles between 2,000cc and 3,999cc, and 4% for those 4,000cc and above, while smaller cars, electric vehicles, mass transit buses, and locally manufactured vehicles are exempt. The government is framing this as both a revenue measure and an environmental push, with a 90-day grace period given before full enforcement.

Transport operators, dealers, and consumers (already facing much higher costs of living) are not in support. The critics say it could further push up vehicle prices and transport fares. Analysts say the policy may encourage local manufacturing and greener transport in theory, but warn that Nigeria currently lacks the infrastructure and affordability of alternatives like electric vehicles and efficient public transport.

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