TGIF! Davido once said, “If weekend go sweet na from like Wednesday you go know“. So, if your weekend isn’t planned yet… try again next week?

The latest in Nigeria’s good-news-bad-news streak: the country’s broad money supply (M3) slipped to ₦123.36 trillion in January, down from ₦124.4 trillion in December, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. M3 is the widest measure of money in the economy (cash in circulation, bank deposits, savings, and foreign currency deposits). When it falls, it usually means liquidity is tightening. The decline was mainly driven by a drop in net foreign assets, which fell to ₦29.6 trillion from ₦31.5 trillion. Domestic liquidity, however, rose to ₦93.76 trillion, suggesting banks continued lending within the economy, including to government and private businesses.

Note: A fall in net foreign assets doesn’t necessarily contradict reports of strong foreign reserves.

Businesses also hit the brakes

At the same time, Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.7 in January, down from 53.5 in December.

Quick one on PMI: 50 is the line between growth and contraction. Above it, businesses are expanding. Below it, activity is shrinking. January’s dip marked the first January contraction since the survey began in 2014.

Demand was the main issue. After 14 months of growth, new orders flatlined as some firms saw more customers while others reported weaker demand. The slowdown was most noticeable in wholesale and retail, while agriculture, manufacturing, and services still recorded growth.

The price pressure problem isn’t gone

Businesses also reported higher raw material costs and rising wages, which pushed input prices to a three-month high. Companies passed some of those costs to customers, raising selling prices slightly. But compared to recent years, price increases remain relatively moderate.

That aligns with broader inflation trends. Nigeria’s headline inflation has now fallen for eleven consecutive months, reaching 15.1% in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. So, we’re not in the red flag zone yet; this is more like the economy taking a cautious start to the year while policymakers continue nudging inflation down.

One mildly encouraging note: companies kept hiring, so job growth expanded.

⚡Latest electricity fails: Nigeria’s electricity generation has dropped below the 4,000MW mark again, as gas shortages continue to constrain output from thermal power plants. The Nigerian Independent System Operator said total generation stood at 3,940.53MW on Thursday, the 5th of January, already below expected capacity. Within hours, the situation worsened as additional units shut down, cutting another 292MW from the grid. The core issue is limited gas supply to several plants. Thermal plants which produce over 70% of Nigeria’s grid electricity, require about 1.59 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to run optimally, but are currently receiving only 40% of what’s needed. The shortfall reflects persistent structural issues and volatility exposure in Nigeria’s power sector.

💬 Elevator pitch: Nigeria is making a fresh pitch to foreign investors to help turn its mineral wealth into actual industry. Speaking at the Nigeria–German Economic Forum in Dortmund, Steel Development Minister Shuaibu Audu said the country wants to move beyond exporting raw materials and instead build domestic steel production. Nigeria consumes about $10 billion worth of steel every year but still imports much of it. With over three billion tonnes of iron ore and a huge domestic market, the government says the opportunity is to move from exporting to producing finished steel. They are hoping foreign investors bring the capital, technology, and infrastructure needed to make it happen.

👔Dangote’s global moves: Dangote Cement plans to invest $1 billion over the next four years to expand production capacity as infrastructure spending across Africa drives demand for building materials. The company aims to boost capacity by 45% to 80 million tonnes, with new investments planned in Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other African markets. The expansion will be funded through a mix of operating cash flow, bonds, bank loans, and commercial papers. The move comes as governments across Sub-Saharan Africa ramp up infrastructure projects (from roads to ports), which will most likely keep cement demand strong. Separately, Dangote refinery has issued tenders to sell jet fuel and diesel for March loading, offering up to 44,000 tonnes of jet fuel and 40,000 tonnes of diesel. The sale signals the refinery’s growing presence in global fuel markets.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has added more gold to its foreign reserves through the National Gold Purchase Programme, bringing total gold holdings to about $3.5 billion. The gold is sourced from Nigerian miners and refined to London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Good Delivery standards, meaning it meets the global benchmark used in international gold markets.

The CBN paid for the gold in naira, with prices linked to global benchmarks. That means Nigeria can build reserves without sacrificing its forex.

Why central banks love gold again

Gold is having a moment with central banks in Africa. They are using it to diversify from US dollars. It’s also globally used as a hedge against inflation, currency swings, and geopolitical uncertainty. According to CBN governor Olayemi Cardoso, buying locally refined gold helps strengthen reserves while supporting Nigeria’s mining sector and keeping dollars in the country.

Mining is serious business

Nigeria still holds most of its reserves in foreign currencies, but gold is becoming a bigger piece of the puzzle as prices surge and central banks rethink reserve strategies. If this continues, Nigeria could turn its domestic gold production into reserve assets, effectively converting minerals into CBN reserves without touching its FX stockpile.