Happy Monday! May the grind be in your favour 💛

The Middle East war is already forcing changes in the energy industry. French energy leader TotalEnergies says it is in the process of shutting down about 15% of its oil and gas production tied to assets in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore the United Arab Emirates

Normally, losing that much production would sting. But oil prices have jumped so much that the company expects to make up the lost revenue anyway.

The benchmark Brent crude started the year around $60 per barrel and briefly surged above $100 as tensions escalated. In fact, TotalEnergies says even an $8 increase in Brent prices would offset the loss from its Middle East operations.

The Hormuz problem

The real worry isn’t just production shutdowns. It’s the shipping lane. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy choke points. Roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Iran says it’s ready to shut it down.

Shipping is already rerouting

The disruption isn’t theoretical anymore. Major container shipping companies have already suspended sailings through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, citing security risks tied to the conflict. When ships avoid these routes, they often take longer detours around Africa, which burns more fuel and increases travel time. That means higher costs across the entire global supply chain.

How it’s showing up in Nigeria

For Nigeria, the pain could show up at the ports. Shipping operators say insurers have started adding War Risk Insurance premiums to cargo moving through affected waters. According to industry estimates, that could mean an extra $3,000–$4,000 per container.

In a country where import costs already feed directly into inflation, that’s not great news. Also, shipping companies might prioritise more profitable European routes over African ones. In other words, fewer ships, higher costs, and slower deliveries.

🥳 Shipping wins: Global shipping powerhouse Mediterranean Shipping Company is doubling down on Nigeria. The Switzerland-based firm just signed a 45-year concession with Nigerdock to build and run a new container terminal at Snake Island Port, part of a broader $1B investment in the country’s logistics and infrastructure. The terminal, set to be built by ITB Nigeria and DEME Group, is expected to open in 2028. The bet comes as global shipping companies scramble to lock in long-term positions in emerging markets while supply chains worldwide are reshuffling. For Nigeria, the project could help ease chronic congestion around the Lagos Port Complex, one of the busiest (and most gridlocked) gateways for trade in West Africa, and potentially make Snake Island a bigger player in global shipping routes.

💰Nigeria’s pension savings pool keeps getting bigger: New data from the National Pension Commission shows total pension assets climbed to ₦28 trillion in January 2026, up 2.1% from the previous month and about 22.6% higher than a year ago. The industry has added roughly ₦5 trillion in assets over the past year, helped by steady contributions and investment gains, while the number of pension contributors has edged up to about 11.1 million. Most of that money is still parked in government debt. Investments in Federal Government securities account for the largest share at around ₦16.7 trillion, while domestic equities sit at roughly ₦4.3 trillion as pension funds gradually increase exposure to the stock market. Even with the growth, Nigeria’s pension system remains relatively small compared with the economy, with total assets equal to just about 6.5% of GDP.

🤝🏽Open door policy at the SEC: Nigeria’s financial regulator is opening the door to fintech founders. The Securities and Exchange Commission Nigeria has launched its first Regulator/FinTech Clinic, a new forum meant to bring startups and regulators into the same room to talk through rules, risks, and how not to accidentally build something illegal. SEC Director-General Emomotimi Agama said the goal is to ensure Nigeria’s fast-growing fintech sector stays on the right side of the law, especially as digital investments and new financial products become more popular. Officials say early engagement should help startups avoid compliance problems later, particularly as regulators crack down on unregistered investment platforms while trying not to stifle one of Nigeria’s skyrocketing tech sectors.

According to new data, Nigeria’s total merchandise trade reached ₦36.21 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Exports came in at ₦18.96 trillion, slightly higher than imports of ₦17.25 trillion, leaving the country with a ₦1.71 trillion trade surplus. But the numbers also show trade activity cooling a bit. Total trade dropped compared with both the previous quarter and the same period in 2024, largely because crude oil exports declined.

Oil is still the main character

No surprises here: crude oil remains Nigeria’s biggest export by far. Oil shipments were worth ₦9.7 trillion, accounting for just over half of total exports. Non-crude exports, including things like natural gas and fertiliser, made up the other half, while fully non-oil products accounted for only about 17% of exports. In other words, the economy is exporting more than it imports, but it’s still doing so mostly thanks to petroleum.

China is still Nigeria’s shopping mall

On the import side, one country continues to dominate. China supplied ₦5.39 trillion worth of goods, making up about 31% of Nigeria’s total imports. The United States, Netherlands, India, and Brazil rounded out the top five suppliers. The shopping list looks familiar: petrol, wheat, crude petroleum products, sugar for refining, and used vehicles. Basically, the staples of Nigeria’s consumption and industry still come from abroad.

Where Nigeria sends its exports

While China dominates imports, Europe and Asia dominate Nigeria’s export destinations. The Netherlands was the largest buyer in Q4, followed by India, Spain, France, and Canada. Together, those five countries accounted for about 42% of Nigeria’s exports, most of which were tied to crude oil, natural gas, jet fuel, and fertiliser.

Zoom out, and a pattern appears

Nigeria’s trade is heavily concentrated: a handful of countries supply most imports, and a handful buy most exports. In fact, the top ten import partners alone accounted for more than 75% of imports in the quarter.

And because oil still drives most export earnings, the economy is especially exposed to global shocks, something the rising tensions in the Middle East are already reminding markets of.