🍞 Economic purgatory

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At this point, you cannot have a business newsletter without talking about Dangote at least once a week. Every day, Dangote Industries wakes up with a mission to take over the (business) world, and this newsletter details the company’s latest ventures. We also dive into some of the ways the CBN is attempting to manage the economy’s current challenges.

First: oil flowing (🤞🏽)

After years of buildup, Dangote has hit first oil from its upstream assets in the Niger Delta, currently producing about 4,500 barrels per day and aiming for 15,000 bpd soon. The bigger play here isn’t just producing crude, it’s feeding its refinery directly, reducing its long-running supply headaches and cutting out middlemen. Add plans for its own shipping fleet, and this is looking less like a refinery and more like a fully self-contained oil ecosystem.

Chemicals, because why not?
The refinery is expanding into detergent raw materials with a 400,000MT chemical push. Another step toward capturing more value across the petrochemical chain.

Then: continental fertiliser
Dangote is tripling its fertiliser ambitions, scaling Nigeria’s capacity from 3 million to 9 million metric tonnes annually, while also building a $2.5 billion plant in Ethiopia. This project has 4 major backers:

The goal is to dominate urea production, plug Africa’s food security gaps, and export the rest.

Meanwhile, back at the balance sheet…
Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc just got shareholder approval to raise ₦500 billion via a rights issue. The company is still dealing with heavy financial liabilities (₦688 billion) but is clawing its way back by cutting losses significantly last year.

The throughline:
Dangote is tightening its grip across entire industries, from raw inputs to finished goods. The strategy is clear: own the supply, own the processing, own the margins.

🤝🏾 Institutions partnering up to institute: The Nigerian Communications Commission and The CBN have decided to act like co-parents of Nigeria’s digital economy by signing an MoU to tackle fraud, protect consumers, and generally make sure your money doesn’t disappear into the void after a failed airtime purchase. The deal sets up two joint committees focused on payment systems and telecom-linked identity risks, while also deepening coordination on things like digital inclusion, innovation, and financial stability. The big unlock here is the new TIRMS portal, which gives financial institutions access to telecom data to track recycled numbers, flagged lines, and SIM swaps, so they can better spot fraud before it happens. It builds on recent joint moves like the 30-second refund rule for failed transactions and proposed audits across banks and telcos, all aimed at fixing one very Nigerian problem: being debited for something you never received.

👨🏽‍⚖️ Treasury auction: The CBN is set to raise ₦750 billion through a Treasury Bills auction on April 22, 2026, as part of the government’s wider ₦3.95 trillion borrowing plan for the quarter. The offer is split across three maturities: ₦100 billion each for the 91-day and 182-day bills, and ₦550 billion for the 364-day bill, which is expected to get the most attention since investors usually prefer the higher returns that come with longer tenors. Overall, it’s another reminder that the government is still leaning heavily on short-term domestic borrowing to meet its funding needs. But there’s likely to be solid interest, especially with interest rates still elevated and Treasury Bills offering relatively attractive yields. As usual, it’ll all be priced through a Dutch auction, so the final rates will be shaped by how much investors are willing to pay.

💸 Dining with the UK: Nigeria has become the UK’s largest export market in Africa, with bilateral trade hitting a record £8.1 billion as both countries push to turn diplomatic ties into actual business deals. This came during a recent UK trade and investment mission to Nigeria, where 30 British companies met Nigerian counterparts across sectors like infrastructure, energy, finance, tech, and agriculture. The conversations focused on building partnerships, chasing deals, and trying to lock in long-term investment flows under the UK–Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership. Overall, the mission signals a more hands-on phase in UK–Nigeria economic relations, with both sides betting that structured deal-making will now drive the next stage of growth.

Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in just the first two months of 2026, even as its domestic refining sector continues to struggle with supply shortages. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria shows production was about 81.94 million barrels over the period, but only 26.55 million barrels were left for local refining. Daily exports still averaged close to 1 million barrels in January and 0.86 million in February, while local refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, say they are operating worryingly below capacity due to limited crude supply.

That shortage has become a recurring issue. Dangote Refinery says it’s only getting about five cargoes a month instead of the roughly 13 it needs, forcing it to rely on imports despite Nigeria’s status as a top oil producer. Between late 2025 and early 2026, it reportedly received less than 30% of its required crude, a gap it says is driving higher costs and price volatility in fuel markets. Meanwhile, the NNPC Limited says it’s trying to plug the gap with international sourcing, but stakeholders argue the system still prioritises exports over local refining, undermining Nigeria’s push for energy security. These decisions are pushing transport costs up everywhere. Most recent public good affected: ferry fares in Lagos jumped by over 50% due to the high cost of petrol.

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