🍞Cautiously optimistic

Happy Monday!

What do Ghana, Togo, Cameroon, Tanzania, and Côte d’Ivoire have in common? They’re all buying petrol from Nigeria (read: Dangote).

That’s right, you can tell your kids, “I was there when Nigeria became a petrol exporter.” Don’t forget to add that you found out while reading the Daily Bread News 👀

After forever of exporting crude only to import refined fuel, the script is flipping thanks to Dangote. The Dangote refinery has shipped 12 cargoes of petrol to countries like Ghana, Togo, Cameroon, Tanzania, and Côte d’Ivoire. This happened right after the refinery hit its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day in February.

Africa buying fuel from Africa. Revolutionary.

Most African countries still import fuel from places like the Middle East, India, and Europe. In fact, about 75% of refined fuel in parts of Africa comes from the Middle East.

So when a refinery within the continent starts exporting at scale, it’s kind of a big deal. Shorter distances, potentially cheaper logistics, and less waiting around for ships crossing oceans.

The world is on fire, and Dangote is making money moves

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. The ongoing war involving Iran vs the U.S., and Israel is shaking global fuel supply chains. Countries are scrambling to secure energy, not necessarily the cheapest option, just any reliable option.

That scramble has conveniently made Dangote Refinery very popular. Demand is rising not because prices are low, but because everyone wants a backup supply — you know, the same energy as people hoarding toilet paper at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

About 75% of the refinery’s output still stays in Nigeria, but the remaining 25% is now positioning the country as a regional supplier. There are even talks of longer-term deals, with South Africa reportedly eyeing a steady supply arrangement.

Add in higher-quality Euro 5 fuel (goodbye, substandard imports), and this starts to look less like a one-off export story and more like a long-term shift.

The bottom line

For once, Nigeria isn’t just participating in the global oil market; it’s starting to influence it. If this scales, Nigeria (Read: Dangote) might be on its way to supplying fully processed petrol globally.

💲NGX just levelled up its market game: The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) has launched two new index futures contracts: NGX30U6 and NGXPENSIONU6. Listed on March 16 and set to expire September 18, 2026, these contracts let traders bet on whether the NGX30 and NGX Pension indices will rise or fall, all without touching the underlying stocks. The move signals that Nigeria’s capital market is growing. Futures let investors hedge against volatility, speculate on market swings, or protect pension fund portfolios, which are tools of more advanced markets. With these contracts, NGX is making it easier for both retail and institutional investors to manage risk, deepen liquidity, and generally act like a more globally competitive exchange.

⛽Piping through Europe: The FG is intensifying talks on a proposed transcontinental gas pipeline that could send up to 30 billion cubic metres of Nigerian gas annually through Chad and Libya, then under the Mediterranean to Sicily and Europe. Officials describe it as a “transformative gas corridor” that could strengthen energy security, attract investors, and create jobs while turning Nigeria into a major supplier for the continent. Stakeholders from NNPC Limited, Netoil, and other consortium partners say the project is beneficial for Europe and could cut gas flaring in Nigeria. While still early in development, the pipeline is being pitched as a win-win: it’ll boost Nigeria’s energy sector, deepen Europe’s ties, and open new opportunities for long-term economic value. At the moment, the conflict in the Middle East is making Nigeria’s gas even more attractive.

🗒️ Bad signals: Last week, The Daily Bread reported that the war in the Middle East + U.S. is starting to affect Nigeria’s fertiliser supply. Across Abuja’s markets, staples like tomatoes and beans have surged dramatically. Some items have more than tripled in price since February. Additionally, electricity shortages and reliance on diesel-powered generators are driving up the cost of water, ice, and everyday services, leaving households scrambling to stretch their incomes. Traders and residents are calling on the government to act, but officials are sticking to market-based petrol pricing, arguing that reforms are necessary for long-term stability. With global oil prices above $100 a barrel, transportation and production costs are likely to stay high. So unless Nigerians get creative or the government finds alternative relief measures, the cost-of-living pinch could get worse.

Nigeria’s stock market has been on a run. After breaking out in 2024, it delivered a 51% return in 2025 and is already up nearly 30% in early 2026.

Who’s pushing the market up?

A mix of local and foreign money is doing the heavy lifting. Pension funds are piling into reliable, dividend-paying stocks like Zenith Bank, UBA, and GTCO. At the same time, foreign investors are slowly returning, helped by a more stable naira and reforms that are making Nigeria look investable again. Average Nigerians (aka retail investors) are also in our “make money while you sleep” era. It’s all on the up and up.

The greatest hits

Sector-wise, it’s a bit of a greatest hits album. Oil and gas stocks got a boost from higher global crude prices and local refining momentum, with names like Seplat Energy and Aradel Energy riding the wave. Cement companies like Dangote Cement and BUA Cement are benefiting from infrastructure spending (hello, coastal road project). And then there’s MTN Nigeria moving markets just by existing.

But the market is starting to crack

After sprinting to nearly 205,000 points on the NGX All-Share Index, the market has started to cool off slightly. It hasn’t crashed; it’s more of a collective cooling off. It’s no longer overheated, but things could get volatile from here.

The market has a safety zone around 190,000–195,000 points on the NGX All-Share Index. This is where buyers usually step in to keep the market from falling too far. If the index slips below that range, we could see a sharper drop in stock prices.

Smart money is starting to exit the chat

As the market crossed ₦130 trillion in value, some institutional investors started taking profits. They bought low, they’re selling high. That’s why even shares of large, well-established, and financially stable companies with a history of reliable performance and consistent dividend payments are starting to swing up and down more than usual.

Why investors are still optimistic

Despite the volatility, the bigger picture still looks strong. The naira has stabilised somewhat, and equities are starting to look more attractive than fixed income again. There’s also anticipation around potential big listings (NNPC, Dangote Refinery), which could bring fresh money and even more hype into the market.